Sunday, March 8, 2009

The Weekly Trade 3/9

After Friday's late day comeback I would not be that bullish but its also hard to be that bearish down at these levels because it just feels like we are getting close to a meaningful bounce. I believe we could get a rebound this week but its anyone's guess as to when it starts. We are so overextended to the downside that it would take a 50% rally to get us back to the 200 day EMA on the SPX. That's unreal.

There has been some talk of mark to market accounting being suspended and that an announcement is due this week. If this happens I think it would be very bullish for the financials and the market as a whole. Perhaps its the catalyst the market is waiting for.

Whatever happens remember the levels to watch for. Looking at the chart you can see we are well below the downtrending 20 and 50 day EMA's. Also if we do get any bounce to the 741 area then look for resistance to show its head as that was our previous big floor we broke down from.

Economic data this week is light and includes:

Tuesday- Wholesale Inventories

Thursday- Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories

Friday- Trade Balance, Mich. Sentiment

For Monday I wanna start neutral and look for a trend to establish itself either above or below the pivot to determine the day's bias. The pivot is at 682.75 and we are trading a bit above that overnight. If we get going above that area then we could even attempt a gap fill from last week up to 710 or so. Trade safe.

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