Thursday, March 5, 2009

Thursday Thump

Any hope of follow thru from Wed was totally dashed at the open Thursday as we gapped down and never filled the gap. It was another slow grind lower all day and we tagged some new lows in the ES around 676 before closing a tad above that in the low 680s. It was a pretty bearish day looking at the internals. Every attempt at a bounce was met with sellers and so now we go into a Friday with sentiment this bad and comedy shows such as The Daily Show talking about how bad things are. When I start seeing this sort of attention paid to the market by "outsiders" then I know we are setting up for a mean short squeeze of a rally. It may not happen Friday but I think we are getting pretty close to seeing something surprise the bears.

As for Friday, we definitely could get a rally if the jobs number isnt half way bad. We are set up for it after we held the 680 level somewhat and are rallying after hours up to 688. Also the Euro is getting a boost overnight as I type and that should help the SPX as they tightly correlated lately.

Friday's pivot on the ES is 687.50. I would not be surprised to see this thing rally into the weekend if it opens above that pivot. We have that gap from Thursday up to 712 that could act as a magnet and be filled if we get any momo. Below the pivot and I think you gotta be only expecting more pain into the weekend. We'll see what happens but I think odds are decent we bounce.

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