Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Weekly Trade 3/30

Last week ended with a bit of profit taking after a fierce rally. I was looking for the market to hold 800 last week. It did. So that is going to be key support going into this week. The futures are selling off into that area Sunday evening and look to be pointing towards a lower open in the morning. I think this latest bull bounce can be resumed but we could see a pullback into the 770 area first. Last week the market had a hard time getting over the 820 level and until we closed above there again then we will probably retrace a bit more.

Looking at the chart to the left you can see that the 800 level has been very important support/resistance going back to October and at the same tiem we got up to it last week the indicators below seem to be running out of steam and rolling back over. However, the reason I think we will not see fresh lows and just a retracement is because we are now ABOVE the 20 and 50 day ema's. I think last week was the first weekly close above both averages in the chart. This will provide support for the coming pullback. The 20 day ema stands at 781.

Tuesday- Consumer Confidence, Case Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI

Wednesday- ADP Employment, Construction Spending, ISM Index, Pending Home Sales, Auto and Truck Sales

Thursday- Jobless Claims, Factory Orders

Friday- Jobs Report, ISM Services

Overall, I want to start out the week neutral and see where this market wants to go. The jobs data this week should be important but remember its all about expectations. As for Monday the pivot is at 814.50 and I would look for a half gap fill in the morning followed by a primary downtrend intraday to short into. Trade safe.

No comments: