Sunday, May 3, 2009

The Weekly Trade 5/4

Going into the first full week of May the SPX finished off last week very strong with a close at 877. This week should be a decision for the markets as we are very important resistance on the charts and could break out and go right through 900 or breakdown and go below 850. It really comes right down to that 875 area and who wins the tug of war. The bulls or the bears. I have thought the past week or so would bring us a pullback that could be shallow but it really never transpired. We got more consolidation than anything else really. And that's bullish imo.

Looking at the chart to the left you can see we are holding strong above the 20 and 50 day ema's and the 200 ema is overhead now at the 952 mark. Next big resistance above here is the 900 level and above that I think we have a clear shot to see 930-940 by June. That would roughly equate to about 9k in the Dow; which is what I have been saying for over a month. This market rally is surprising the bears and the longer it goes without faltering the more nervous the shorts will be. Which leads to them giving up and fueling the rally even higher.

Monday- Construction Spending, Pending Home Sales

Tuesday- ISM Services

Wednesday- ADP Employment

Thursday- Jobless Claims, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs

Friday- Nonfarm Payrolls, Wholesale Inventories

Earnings will be winding down and the stress test news will be headlines but should be meaningless as the market does a good job of pricing things in ahead of time. Look for the Nasdaq to continue leading this market if the rally continues. Oil showed signs of breaking out last week and there are lots of good setups in the energy sector so that could give the market more fuel if that sector joined the rally. As long as banks don't give it up then I think we have more upside coming this month.

For Monday, I want to be looking to buy any dip into the low 870s on the ES. The pivot sits at 872.50 and should provide good support for this market if it is going to rally on Monday. Below that area and they could push it to the lows of friday which were in the mid 860s. If we break that level then we will re-evaluate to the downside. For now expect this market to challenge last weeks highs and possibly make new ones. Trade safe.

No comments: