Tuesday, May 12, 2009

POT Bull Put Spread

Potash (POT) has been grinding higher as of late and has just broken above its 200 day ema around 100. The chart looks very bullish imo and should continue higher into the summer months. I was considering looking at a straight call purchase here as it appears to be breaking out or take a longer term view and go out to Sept. to buy a call spread. Instead I thought those trades would be best for the first retest of the 100 area after it breaks out. So let's sell a put spread for now.

Sell the June 95/90 put spread for a $1.65 or better.

The max loss on this position would be the difference between the strikes width and the initial credit. So that loss of 3.35 would be incurred if POT is below 90 at June exp.

Max gain is that initial credit you take in and you keep if POT is above 95 at June exp.

Breakeven on this trade occurs at 93.35.

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