Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Afternoon Dive

On Wednesday the market seemed to be chugging along just fine above 900 and even 910 until midday when the bond auction saw less than enthusiastic demand sending yields straight up to 3.7% on the 10 year. This sent stocks falling and falling sharply. We ended the day on a bearish note as the 60 min and the 15 min charts both rolled over below key moving average support and the SPX closed up shop in the low 890s. At this point it looks likely that the SPX will retrace further to the 876 area where I see the next level of support.

For Thursday I want to be expecting this continued pullback and sell into weak rallies. The pivot is at 898.50 and price is already below that so that mark should become intraday resistance assuming we even test it. I would like to see the 876 level hold and see the market continue higher into June. However, 930 on the SPX and 8500 on the Dow is fierce resistance that the market will have to overcome if any continuation of a rally commences. The break of 876 would be bearish as I think then the market could retest the 850s and quite possibly the 830s but for now its just focus on the 876 support level.

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