Sunday, April 26, 2009

The Weekly Trade 4/27

Going into the last few days of April the market finds itself at a possible turning point. The SPX closed Friday at 866 which was roughly the same area it closed the prior week. The down day we saw last Monday was almost completely erased by the end of the week. The weekly candle on the SPX last week formed a hammer and could be warning us of a selloff in the week ahead. Whatever happens, it is certain that 875 is formidable resistance on the upside.

Technically, the daily chart still shows support beneath the SPX in the form of the 850 area and the 20 and 50 day ema's which stand at 836 and 821 respectively. If we lose that 821 area then I would expect a retest of 800 as that is a key support going back to the fall. Below that and it could get shaky.

Tuesday- Consumer Confidence, Case Shiller Home Price Index

Wednesday- GDP, FOMC rate decision

Thursday- Jobless Claims, Personal Income and Spending, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI

Friday- Michigan Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Index, Auto and Truck Sales

Going into Monday I want to be neutral and flexible to go with where the market wants to travel. The futures are selling off 15 ES pts tonight and point to a lower open in the morning. The pivot for Monday is up at 862.50 and with price a good deal below there right now I think it will be decent resistance Monday if it is even reached. Like I said above, if we lose 850 then we should see 836 and below that 821.

We are at a crucial area with a potential short term pullback still awaiting so dont be surprised. However, if the market can remain resilient and breakout above 875 and close then I think the resumption of the rally will take us higher into May. Plan the trade, and trade the plan.

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