Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Bear Trap?

Tuesday the market pulled back into the 830s like I expected but am still impressed that it didn't go lower given GS and the way it traded lower. It seems like the velocity of down moves is much less than the up swings lately and that's bullish. It is options expiration week so moves can be overdone. Going forward I think we can see a gap fill down to 823 on the ES from last week's gap. Below that I really dont see much downside if we can hold the 815-820 area especially.

For Wednesday, I am looking for that continued pullback but I wouldn't be surprised to see a reversal higher once that gap below is filled. The pivot on the ES will be 843.25 and that should be a key line in the sand to determine the trend of the day. Above that area and we should race to 875 like I have been saying. But for now I think the market wants to fill that gap and just looking at my daily chart of the SPX it looks like the 20 ema is right at 816 so I would think price wants to gravitate towards there. Trade safe.

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