For Wednesday, the pivot is 815.75 and price is falling tonight to the low 800s so that area will be a critical spot to see if this market bounces or fails to the next area of support. I think if we lose 800 and close below then we could see the market retrace back to 771. Above 816 or so and I more bullish biased. It really just seems like the market is slowing and going to churn for a few days in this range perhaps so don't get chopped up.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Every big rally needs a pullback and the bears got what they wanted on Tuesday. For now I still believe this pullback is just that, a retracement. I would like to this SPX hold 800 this week but we will see what happens. It is a holiday week and no trading on Friday. Alot of times in the days before a market holiday, the market volume will dry up and you will see a move against the primary trend. Right now the primary trend of the last month is up, so I would think the light volume could push this market lower and create a bear trap to those shorts that think they have gotten in at the top.