Thursday, January 8, 2009

Jobs Jobs Jobs

So Thursday was a crazy chop fest of a day in the market. Just boring action period. You had to be quick with your scalps today as the moves just didn't trend. But overall that was what I expected as I said yesterday. We got the morning sell and somewhat of a bounce into the close.

For Friday I am expecting a possible rally believe it or not. Jobs data due out premarket will be the story of the day. In my opinion anything less than 500k jobs lost in Dec and less than 7% rate is bullish and you very well may see a nice bounce in the markets into the weekend. Of course if we get a nasty surprise we could just as easily go to 880 as a first stop.

On the charts we are setup nicely to rally because today we came down to the low 890s and that is just beyond the 50% retracement of the rally from last week. If we can hold that retrace level around 890 this market can really start to tear. And a better than expected jobs number just may be that catalyst. We'll see.

On the upside I could see us moving to 963 as the next swing target if we start the leg higher. For Friday the pivot point is at 902 so my idea would be to see how we open (we are almost surely going to gap one way or the other after "the number" comes out). If we gap higher I would like to be a buyer of a partial gap fill or retest of the pivot.

I think we could easily see 916 if we go up. There will be some resistance in the 916-920 area. That's a 50% retrace of the move down from Tues. If we get over the 923 level then we should see some real buying. So anything can happen Friday, just be ready to play either side once the trend establishes itself.


MarketAddiction said...

Do you use ToS?

Jason said...

I just started using it last week and love it. I havent found anything to complain about yet.

MarketAddiction said...

Why not go with IB? Cheaper commissions (much cheaper with stocks) and the ability to trade anything from any market with one account, and their executions are great.

Jason said...

Yeah you can trade anything with TOS as well. But I honestly dont mind paying a bit more in commish if I get all the great tools geared for options at TOS. Besides I really dont trade stock much anymore. Mostly futures and options. I use Global Futures for E-mini's though. But I have heard IB is great too.