Thursday, January 29, 2009

Bullish on Gold

Gold has done very well technically lately. On Thursday it reached 910 and that was after a nice retracement midweek to the 880 level. I think gold is poised to breakout higher in the coming weeks and months. I see this as being a multi month move in which could also mark a top in the dollar. The dollar has had a great 6 month rally and during that time gold has sold off but not as sharply as nearly every commodity under the sun.

Looking at the long term chart of gold you can see that most of 08 was spent consolidating in a massive bull flag after the rally prior. You can see that gold is now breaking out of this bull flag and headed higher. If you apply a fib retracement from the entire move of the last 4 years or so when gold was down around 400 to the recent peak then the 50% retrace was right near the 700 zone where the gold market bottomed this past year.

Looking more short term and you can see the last few months have seen gold stair stepping higher and each retracement has been met with buyers. Now with gold breaking out over 900 what is the game plan? If you're long then stay long. If youre not long then either buy it here in the low 900s or wait for the current leg higher to retrace and then buy.

I can see gold getting into the 960s within a month or so. My target for the next 6-9 months is much higher at 1150. That's roughly a 127.2% fib extension of the large multi year move in the chart. Just stay away from the gold miners because you incur company risk when you buy a miner. If gold comes back down below 840 then this trade is invalid.

If you think gold is going higher, like I do, then just go long GLD.

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