Monday, January 5, 2009

Bull Trap?

Well as we kick 09, the markets gave back a little gain today from Friday. And that is just fine. I am still bullish intermediate term but think short term we could see a pullback into the low 900s after the selloff late in the day today.

Market failed to break 934 and proceeded to come right back down to the pivot poitn where it then bounced into the close. Overall the action was very choppy for much of the day and volume was still lacking at about half of normal.

For Tuesday the pivot point on the ES futures is 926. The futures are grinding up just above that overnight as I type. I would look for weakness near the open and if the ES falls below the pivot then try to short any retest of the pivot. I would take longs on retraces of the futures if the ES got over 934 Tuesday.

Fed Minutes are due out at 2:00 pm et so be aware and watch for possible reversals of trend at end of day (as if that isnt common knowledge lately).

Oil is up 25% in like 3 days which is insane and the dollar rallied nicely today. I would think oil is ready for at least a pullback near here so dont be rushing into any of the energy or ag names after these crazy runs. The dollar/euro pair got stopped cold around 1.39 Monday and looks to be a sell the rip mode.

Lastly I mentioned gold earlier and it got hammered today but closed well off the lows. I would not be long gold until it cleared the crucial 900 resistance level and that may take a bit more time to transpire. If it breaks 840 to the downside then it could see the low 800s once more.


MarketAddiction said...

I think the Fed minutes are out on the 27th.

MarketAddiction said...

Nevermind, lol. What calendar do you use for economic data?

Jason said...

lol honestly i didn't see it on when I looked..but heard on CNBC the minutes come out today..

i guess they are good for something besides hot anchors haha