Friday, October 24, 2008


I wanted to do a mid-morning update here with the volatility out here. Futures were limit down overnight. We are recovering well off the lows of the morning right now. As I speak I see the futures printing 870. If we cant surpass the 875 level this market is goin lower. We are simply seeing mass liquidation and I dont see it ending today.

Euro hit low of 1.2479 this morning, the pound hit 1.5224. The foreign currencies are just falling apart, except for the yen of course which is actually having another great week. Dollar is at its best levels in nearly 3 years and this trend will continue. The sad part is that 95% of America has no idea of this huge new bull market in the dollar and probably will not hear of it till its nearly over.

Also oil is getting slammed down this morning after hitting a low of 62.95. Contrary to popular belief (yes CNBC), this OPEC meeting in Vienna means absolutely nothing and they can not stabilize the price of oil no matter what. A market will go where it is destined to go. If they create a pop in crude, its made to sell into.

Precious metals are seeing selling as well. Gold hit a low of $681/oz overnight before recovering to current levels of near 715. Silver has dipped under $9/oz. The gold bugs are screaming and you know it, lol. This whole move down in the commodity and metals space is indicating worldwide DEFLATION and slowing growth for years to come. Prices will continue to drop. So enjoy the fact that you will be paying much less for goods like food and oil because your assets will be worth less as well.

Ok back to the markets. We are now seeing the ES futures hitting 880. We are seeing strength move into the markets even more so since I started typing this post. Above 890 and and we could actually reverse and close higher on the day but I am not convinced just yet. Watch the VIX today. The chart to the left is a 1min since todays open. It has pulled back off its highs drastically already. At the open the VIX hit 89! It has pulled back all the way to 75 so if this can pullback even more then we can fuel a late day rally but dont get your hopes up. At this point I believe it is inevitable that this market break the lows of two weeks prior and make a new washout to the downside possibly breaking the 800 SPX level, but this may take a bit more time to pan out. But for today it is once again a great trading market so take your scalps when you get them and obey your stops!

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