Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Hank "Sell Signal" Paulsen?

Ok so I'm not gonna go into how wild of a day it was today because unless youve been living in barn lately, then you already know this. What I will touch on is how Hank Paulsen may be the newest signal to sell when he comes on tv to "restore confidence". In the chart you can see that at about 3:15 et Hank comes on and starts speaking. This is precisely the time when the market makes a double top high at 1020 (which is coincidently the pivot point for the SPX cash today) and precedes to sell off into the close and end at 988. I remember when that was a huge move in a week, lol and now we get these moves in the matter of one hour. Unreal.

Infact, looking at the chart you can see the range of the SPX was a full 50 pts..but the roundtrip that it took was much more. The trading opportunities were real today and I was quite active in my trading intraday. I wanted to go over a few of the patterns on the 5min chart today that proved to be low risk setups. First the descending triangle that appeared to be setting the stage for a massive breakdown under 975 during the first half of the day...actually proved to be a falling wedge as you can see from the outline I drew in. Falling wedges are bullish reversal patterns and this one was no different. At exactly 1pm et the SPX broke out to the upside of this falling wedge and preceded to run up 40 points in literally 90 minutes. I took some QQQQ Oct 34 calls on this breakout and rode them up for 25% in a hour and a half. I could have just as easily taken a long in the ES futures but I chickened out.

The second formation that came to fruition today was the double top sell signal off the test of 1020...indicated by the two circles on the chart. When a market fails to make a new high and resumes lower it is a sign of buyers drying up and a likely rollover of prices to come. We then dropped off a cliff to close the day.
The setups are there everyday people, you just need to learn how to read them on the charts using proper technical analysis and money management. Meaning that once you are in a trade you monitor its odds of success and move up your stops accordingly to lock in profits, without the influence of emotion.
So to review, just remember to sell as soon as Hank, Big Ben, or Bush begin a speech on the markets/economy, lol

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