Wednesday, November 9, 2011

VIX a Sale at 40?

I will be watching the VIX and the 40 level to look at selling volatility in stocks. The main reason is based on the LRC I have on the chart. The linear regression channel I use shows when the market gets too stretched in one direction based on its recent activity. The outer red lines are two standard deviation bands and the LRC channel dynamically updates in real time. The outer band is sitting near 39-40 so this will likely be a tough level for the VIX to sustain above for more than 1-2 days. This is also a very similar concept to using the bollinger bands on the VIX.

  • If/when the VIX tests the 39-40 area it would probably also mean the SPX is testing the 1200-1210 zone of support. A big line in the sand for bulls going into year end.
  • Thanksgiving is in 2 weeks. That means holiday trading mode. It also means theta decay will start to be priced into the options markets in the next few weeks. 
  • It would take a lot of new information from Europe that isn't already somewhat priced in to get the VIX to explode thru 45-50 into the holiday season. Unlikely. Not impossible, but just not probable.

The easiest way to sell vol is to sell put credit spreads into support on strong stocks. Selling SPY iron condors works as well. Or maybe even just buying a calendar spread on the SPY going into the next month (Buying Jan/selling Dec). Expecting price to stay range bound and volatility to come in. Just some ideas here.

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