Sunday, June 28, 2009

Weekly Watchlist 6/29

Going into the last few days of June and the 2nd quarter we have the SPX sitting at 919 and remains stuck in a range between 890-950. This week there is no trading on Friday to observe 4th of July so I think the action will be quiet with low volume. Still with end of quarter window dressing and the market sitting at key support levels, they might try to push this market up into the holiday weekend.

Overall, I think we need to keep an eye on the potential head and shoulders pattern developing on the SPX the last few months. Even with last week's rally on Thursday it could simply be forming the right shoulder of this topping pattern with a neckline near 880. If that mark is broken we could have a more significant selloff on the horizon. However, for now it is only a potential pattern and if the market wants to rally, then it will.

Since I am anticipating a rather rangebound market for te next week or so I would not be looking for too many big moves out there this week. Selling some credit spreads or condors might work well in the coming weeks as these are strategies that favor sideways markets and volatility usually hits its lowest point during the July expy cycle historically.

The watchlist:


Shorts: CAT, PCL, TOL, WY

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