Thursday, December 11, 2008

How's It Going To Be

So the short setup that I alerted at midday pretty much worked out perfectly. Hope some of you were able to cash in on that move down as the market gave us a great signal right about 1:30 pm ET. Bear flag on 5min formed and we dropped about 30 SPX points in a few hours. Technical analysis works. Period.

Going forward now where are we going to be? Well I was saying we will fill the gap at the 876 level but we have yet to see a bounce of any merit. I tend to think we could bounce anywhere near these levels. Just keep watching 850 in the SPX. That is an important level of support the bulls wanna hold. I think it will hold. But if it doesn't, I am switching my bias to the short side. With that said, I am maintaining my stance that if that area holds we will see 1000 SPX by Christmas.

Commodity market is getting a nice bounce this week and the dollar is getting the shaft. Euro printed 1.3372 earlier. I would think we are in the the 7th inning of this most recent pop in oil. Gonna be hard to break out over 50 imo. The pop is in anticipation of an OPEC production cut. Big deal. I do not think oil has bottomed. It is also in part to the pricing in of a 50 basis interest rate cut next week from the Fed. Thus dollar is getting whacked. I would looked for that to reverse by next week. Trade safe out there.

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