Sunday, January 10, 2010
Weekly Outlook 1/11
The move in crude oil has been powerful and appears to be led by the comeback in the Aussie and Canadian dollars going higher. Everytime it looks like the commodity trade may be topped out it surges so its anyone's guess what stops that train. Gold, silver, and copper are also on fire once again as the dollar takes a break and retraces a good part of the recent rally it has had since bottoming out in early Dec. I think this is a corrective move in the Euro back up before it resumes the new larger trend lower towards the 1.38 level eventually. Also the 10 yr T-note is near 3.8% as bond prices have been falling since Nov. These yields are nearing the 09 highs and once they break 4% get ready for a big move up in yields and headlines all over the media. It will be interesting to see how equities react to this if and when it happens.
This week is already Jan options expy as its a short cycle this month. Earnings season starts this week as well although the meat of reports isn't for a few more weeks. Even so, with this we could get a bit more movement this week in the markets.
Long>> AKS, CAT, PH, AMZN, NVLS, CVS