Monday, November 30, 2009

Weekly Watchlist 11/30

Going into December the markets seem to be trying to put in some kind of topping pattern but they got way too negative too fast off the news from Dubai last week. Friday the market recovered some important overnight losses but more importantly the Euro regained the 1.49 area after a steep sell off. The currencies are still running the show and until the Euro has a close under 1.48 then I think it will continue up and you should expect shakeouts like last Friday. Same with gold and other commodities. Gold needed a sharp correction and it got that. The trend is up. The moves in gold will continue to increase in volatility as the price rises. Gold rallied up and thru my 1150 target I stated here in January and I still think gold is headed up and thru that 1200 mark I called for back in late Summer and even higher next year.

As for the SPX, we have 1105-1110 as a must close above area to continue a rally to 1120. If we clear this I think we have a good shot of seeing 1150-1160 for a year end rally. I really do not see a sustained move down coming before year end. Who wants to forgo those annual bonuses that are paid out soon? They will hold this market up thru Christmas imo. After that who knows but I think the media was just drooling for a story last week and Dubai gave them just that. Contrarian indicators are pointing towards at least a continued snapback higher.

Even if we are in the 8th inning of this bull run we gotta play until the last out and evaluate it as it changes. The 50 day ema on the SPX is still trending up and I think this is a very simple but important signal to focus on. One or two days does not make a trend. The trend is in fact up and even though breadth and certain sectors are fading with each new move up in the markets you cannot ignore the phrase.. "Market's will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

The watchlist:


Shorts>> BBT

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