Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Back To The...Dow 10k

The market is making new highs as the Dow tagged 10k and the SPX closed at 1092. The critical area to watch into the weekend will be 1076-1080 on the cash as that is now support. If we can hold above that level and close on a weekly basis I think the market is then poised to blast off into the 1120-1150 zone we have been targeting for a little while now. There is a chance to see a blowoff top type of event where those who have not gotten in to this market finally "panic" and buy it for fear of missing out on the upside. Funny how just a year ago everyone was fearful of the endless selling. Fear is the one emotion that drives all. Greed is simply fear of missing out on further gains.

The euro broke out of 1.485 level that I had been talking of and the dollar index is making new lows under 76 as commodities in turn, get bid up aggressively. Oil now looks like it is breaking out and should see 80 dollars shortly. Eventually I would not be surprised to see crude up between 85-90 by the end of year. So I guess fill up your tanks now. And buy oil service stocks of course. Copper also is making a push towards $3/lb which is the top part of a sideways channel that has been in place since early summer. If copper breaks out the market could be telling us the fear of inflation is back or the economic growth is returning. Or both.

Still plenty of earnings to come this week and next that should guide the market in the short term. Overall, I remain a bull until I am not one. Which just means the market will tell you when it exhausts itself of buying. A high volume capitulation of euphoria has not occurred yet and I think you should remain bullish until that momo dies off.

1 comment:

AHiddenBone said...

I agree with you. I think the market may take profit tomorrow (Friday) but as the good corporate earnings continues to come in over the next few weeks, the market will continue to move up, so long as the economic data that also comes out isn't as bad as it was just a few weeks ago.

AAPL is going to kick off next week.