Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Got Volatility?

Well today the market basically covered all the bases and then some. Just a wild one. End of quarter. Whatever is going seems like a giant tug of war out there right now and I have no real conviction to either side here.I still lean towards the downside short term especially if the jobs report upsets. However, I do think any dip we get will be bought and we will likely see a final leg into the end of the year going forward. For now lets try to tackle Thursday October 1.

Crude oil supported the market after it rallied into midday and tagged 70 by the end of the day while the dollar caved back in a bit. I think commodities looks interesting here if they can have another continuation up day. The euro is at a huge area here and I think 1.461 low from last week should be watched into the weekend to see if we close below or not. If so, its dollar bullish into October.

The one thing I will say about the price action with an ounce of confidence is that volume is def greater to the downside this week and the rallies have been on weak volume that I do not trust. For now.

1065 on the SPX is key this week so if we get a close above that I think you gotta be bullish. But overall this is a good time to be trading light or even not so much at all. And whatever you do; be hedged or keep those stops in place.

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