Tuesday, August 18, 2009

ICE ICE baby

ICE has spent the last month retracing a sharp selloff from June and recently reversed and now looks ready to crack lower and head towards 80. Today's weak volume bounce back is a good chance to position yourself on the short side. I think it retests the low 80s soon and it could head even lower perhaps. If ICE closes back above the 200 ema near 91.50 I would ditch this thesis.

You can buy the Sept 90 puts here for about 6.30 if your aggressive or you can sell a Aug 90/95 call spread for 75 cents and as long as ICE stays below 90 in the next three days you keep that initial credit. Either way I think a downside play in ICE here is the way to go.

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