Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Is The Selling Done Yet?

Who knows but the graph here shows the evolution of the market after the crash and then ensuing depression way back when. Obviously we are not in the same boat as we once were, but it's worth a look.

As for our current market, and how to trade it, Wednesday was a typical day that you get after a big sell day. Slow, choppy, and relatively low volume bounce back.
Gold was the story of the day as it rallied nearly 40 dollars to new 7 month highs up at $945. I still think this is just the beginning of the gold train. If you are in GLD or any gold miner, stay in, as I think breaking out of the 930 level was pivotal to gold's direction for the next month or two. It ain't done.

For Thursday ES futures pivot is at 829.25. We are right there after hours and the morning trade should be interesting. If we open up above this pivot point then I will be looking to go long and holding for a move to the low 840s possibly. There is a short ambush still up there at 841 so IF we actually do retest that area then I think the sellers may come out.

On the downside if we fail to get over the pivot then I will be short bias and looking for a break of the 820 support level. If 820 fails there is some support at 816 but below that and I think we could head straight to 800 on the SPX. Be ready for anything going into the weekend.

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